03-17-2011, 08:45 PM
16--i had saved this explantion --always thankful to him for this explanation!
sarim explained it extremely well as the following.....
Conditional Probability:....
If given that the pt survived say like 1 yr( or 2 yrs etc.) and asking for probability of surviving certain # of yrs (e.g 2 yrs or 3 yrs etc.).
and the data is given in one of these two ways:
.....STRAIGHT SURVIVAL.
0--1 yr = 80 %
0--2 yr = 60 %
0--3 yr = 40 %
0--4 yr = 20 %
say like if pt survived 1 yr what would be the probability--?(in this case u DIVIDE probabi)
DIVIDE by (prob.of # yr pt already survived e.g. 1 yr)
probability of surviving 2 yrs.......60/80 =75%
probability of surviving 3 yrs.......40/80 =50%
probability of surviving 4 yrs.......20/80 =25%
if the pt survived say like 2 yrs and probability of surviving 4 yrs?
20/60 =33 %
.......SURVIVING THIS INTERVALE.
0--1 yr = 80%
1--2 yr = 60%
2--3 yr = 40%
3--4 yr = 20%
say like if pt survived 1 yr ,what would be the probability? (in this case MULTIPLY probabil.)
Note: Multiply probabilities in between(SKIPPING the survived yr probability in this case 80%)
probability of surviving 3 yrs = 60 times 40
probability of surviving 4 yrs = 60 times 40 times 20
If asked probability of surviving straight say like 4 yrs(from the day one without condition of already survived certain # of yr) = multiply all probabilities 80 times 60 times 40 times 20
NOw in NBME 3 bloc 2, 16 answer is D
0.875 times 0.9 times 0.9
B- would have been the answer if asked straight 4 yr survival
C- is the probability of surviving 3 yrs once the pt already survived for 1 yr
sarim explained it extremely well.....
sarim explained it extremely well as the following.....
Conditional Probability:....
If given that the pt survived say like 1 yr( or 2 yrs etc.) and asking for probability of surviving certain # of yrs (e.g 2 yrs or 3 yrs etc.).
and the data is given in one of these two ways:
.....STRAIGHT SURVIVAL.
0--1 yr = 80 %
0--2 yr = 60 %
0--3 yr = 40 %
0--4 yr = 20 %
say like if pt survived 1 yr what would be the probability--?(in this case u DIVIDE probabi)
DIVIDE by (prob.of # yr pt already survived e.g. 1 yr)
probability of surviving 2 yrs.......60/80 =75%
probability of surviving 3 yrs.......40/80 =50%
probability of surviving 4 yrs.......20/80 =25%
if the pt survived say like 2 yrs and probability of surviving 4 yrs?
20/60 =33 %
.......SURVIVING THIS INTERVALE.
0--1 yr = 80%
1--2 yr = 60%
2--3 yr = 40%
3--4 yr = 20%
say like if pt survived 1 yr ,what would be the probability? (in this case MULTIPLY probabil.)
Note: Multiply probabilities in between(SKIPPING the survived yr probability in this case 80%)
probability of surviving 3 yrs = 60 times 40
probability of surviving 4 yrs = 60 times 40 times 20
If asked probability of surviving straight say like 4 yrs(from the day one without condition of already survived certain # of yr) = multiply all probabilities 80 times 60 times 40 times 20
NOw in NBME 3 bloc 2, 16 answer is D
0.875 times 0.9 times 0.9
B- would have been the answer if asked straight 4 yr survival
C- is the probability of surviving 3 yrs once the pt already survived for 1 yr
sarim explained it extremely well.....